Monthly Forecast of Indian Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Based on NCEP’s Coupled Forecast System

Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Impact of surface meteorological observations on RAMS forecast of monsoon weather systems over the Indian region

An attempt has been made to study the impact of surface meteorological observations on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) simulation of a monsoon depression and two low pressure systems. The surface observations are blended with the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME) gridded analyses for these cases. In one set of experiments the model is run in 12 hour nudging mode initially a...

Advancing Indian Monsoon Rainfall Predictions

Despite great strides made in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon is woefully poor. Our analysis of the reasons for failure exposes a flaw in the popular design of dynamical prediction systems. The approach of driving atmospheric models with a projected ocean surface temperature presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence so...

A prototype system to forecast rainfall induced landslides in Italy

We are designing a system to forecast rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. The system is based on a set of rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, and an ensemble of small scale landslide hazard and risk zonations. Rainfall thresholds include existing and new, national, regional and local empirical thresholds of the intensity-duration (ID) and normalized-ID types. The ne...

Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...